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Mission146
I think you are misusing the, 'Kelly Criterion,' since Kelly is meant for betting (or investing) at an advantage, the optimal Kelly bet on this proposition is $0 overall and $0 on the odds because you do not have an advantage.
The best system to take advantage of a short winning streak on the Don't Pass is to bet everything you have with you on one Don't Pass wager. If you win, you'll have doubled your money and are probably willing to leave. All bets on Craps (as far as line bets) have a negative expectation, no system is mathematically better than any other.
The best system to take advantage of a short winning streak on the Don't Pass is to bet everything you have with you on one Don't Pass wager. If you win, you'll have doubled your money and are probably willing to leave. All bets on Craps (as far as line bets) have a negative expectation, no system is mathematically better than any other.
Although used for investing and other applications, the Kelly Criterion formula was originally presented as a system for gambling on horse races. The formula is used to determine the optimal amount. Apply the Kelly Criterion to Investing and Your Portfolio Sizing The Kelly Formula was created to help calculate the optimal fraction of capital to allocate on a favorable bet. It doesn't mean that the formula is the be-all-end-all solution, but it can help you improve your portfolio sizing.
hoangle1979
Can I get a verification here?
/gambling/kelly-criterion/
/gambling/kelly-criterion/
re-up please: this page :'404 Page Not Found'
The Kelly System For Gambling And Investing 2017
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RS
Kelly Criterion tells you how much to bet relative to your bankroll, variance, and ADVANTAGE. Frequency of winning has no part in the Kelly Criterion.
wrongwayboston
I think you are misusing the, 'Kelly Criterion,' since Kelly is meant for betting (or investing) at an advantage, the optimal Kelly bet on this proposition is $0 overall and $0 on the odds because you do not have an advantage..
You're correct, no advantage on the Don't Pass Odds due to the payout.
But I still think that using a Kelly optimization can be useful when sizing DP odds bets. If you consider that the player is a 2:1 favorite behind the 4&10, 3:2 on 5&9, and 6:5 on 6&8, you could translate these into percentage points of 2%, 1.5%, and 1.2% then develop a usable chart to dictate the amount of odds.
Let's say I walk up to the rail with $1,000 and play the DP, laying odds using those percentages of my bankroll as threshold indicators. My lay odds would be $20 behind the 4&10, $15 behind the 5&9, and $12 behind the 6&8. As you win or lose, you would adjust your bets in the following way:
4&10: for each $100 won/lost, adjust lay odds by $2.
Bankroll | Lay Odds |
---|---|
$750-$849 | $16 |
$850-$949 | $18 |
$950-$1049 | $20 |
$1050-$1149 | $22 |
$1150-$1249 | $24 |
5&9: for each $200 won/lost, adjust lay odds by $3.
Bankroll | Lay Odds |
---|---|
$700-$899 | $12 |
$900-$1099 | $15 |
$1100-$1299 | $18 |
6&8: for each $500 won/lost, adjust lay odds by $6.
Bankroll | Lay Odds |
---|---|
$750-$1249 | $12 |
$1250-$1749 | $18 |
Just something to consider if you are looking for a logical, bankroll-connected way of raising or lowering your DP odds as you play. Again, I know that there is not as advantage per se on the DP odds, but it seems to me a good a way as any to adjust your bets based on wins/losses.
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